Subject: Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data
To date, we are unaware of a study that documents a decrease in CWD prevalence over time in mule deer, white-tailed deer or elk. We briefly consider three plausible explanations for our findings: a) that natural oscillations occur in CWD outbreaks; b) that the outbreak has peaked and is declining to a lower endemic level; or c) that previous management actions were more successful at suppressing the outbreak than originally believed.
Sharp & Pastor [41] illustrated that CWD outbreaks may play out as a series of reoccurring epidemics characterized by either stable limit cycles or oscillations that may dampen or amplify as a function of deer density. If this is the case, we would expect today’s declining deer population to feedback on conditions–lowering transmission rates leading to reduced CWD effects and a growing population. Increasing abundance would support higher transmission rates, deer decline, and oscillations of CWD prevalence and deer. Alternatively, Almberg et al. [21] (see also [22–24,41,42]) suggested that CWD outbreaks could reach endemic equilibrium characterized by coexistence of a smaller deer population and CWD. Under these scenarios, population prevalence would reach a lower, constant level after a period of high prevalence and deer decline.
Although neither of the foregoing scenarios can be dismissed completely, invoking them ignores the extensive management of this deer population that occurred in the years between the two time points we chose as the basis for our analyses. Management aimed to reduce CWD transmission between 2000 and 2005, which included a combination of (crude and unpopular) focal culling and a broader increase in female harvest, decreased overall deer abundance by about 25%. Analyses carried out shortly after suggested that reductions in deer density had made little impact on CWD prevalence [10]. However, our current findings suggest that these management actions may indeed have attenuated the outbreak. Observed dynamics over the last decade closely approximate those predicted from models by Wild et al. [42] that included a substantial amount of selective predation on CWD-infected individuals. That harvest could be a source of selective mortality is supported by an early notion that CWD-infected deer might be more vulnerable to harvest [43], just as infected deer also appear to be more vulnerable to vehicle collisions and predation [20,33,44]. This offers the possibility that hunting could be used as a more tightly controlled substitute for predation in studies of system responses with CWD and perhaps other similar diseases.
The protracted time-scale of the CWD outbreak is much longer than the timespan of our research, which limits our ability to identify the true explanation of our findings. Nonetheless, our research suggests that, at least for the foreseeable future (e.g., decades), mule deer populations sharing the overall survival and infection probabilities estimated from our analyses may persist but likely will not thrive where CWD becomes established as an endemic infectious disease.
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0140687 ‘’Nonetheless, our research suggests that, at least for the foreseeable future (e.g., decades), mule deer populations sharing the overall survival and infection probabilities estimated from our analyses may persist but likely will not thrive where CWD becomes established as an endemic infectious disease. ‘’
*** Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data
‘’Mountain lions prey selectively on CWD infected deer [33] and CWD could result in an abundance of vulnerable prey, thereby enhancing mountain lion survival and reproduction [20].’’
please see ;
‘’preliminary results suggesting that bobcats (Lynx rufus) may be susceptible to white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) chronic wasting disease agent.’’
references on Feline Spongiform Encephalopathy FSE toward the bottom, see ;
Assessing Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy Species Barriers with an In Vitro Prion Protein Conversion Assay
Friday, January 01, 2016
Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data
http://chronic-wasting-disease.blogspot.com/2016/01/bayesian-modeling-of-prion-disease.html Saturday, December 12, 2015
CHRONIC WASTING DISEASE CWD TSE PRION REPORT DECEMBER 14, 2015
http://chronic-wasting-disease.blogspot.com/2015/12/chronic-wasting-disease-cwd-tse-prion.html Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Michigan Deer suspected positive for CWD found in Watertown Township; Jan. 12 public meeting set
http://chronic-wasting-disease.blogspot.com/2015/12/michigan-deer-suspected-positive-for.html Tuesday, December 29, 2015
TEXAS MONTHLY CHRONIC WASTING DISEASE CWD JANUARY 2016 DEER BREEDERS STILL DON'T GET IT $
Chronic Wasting Unease
The emergence of a deadly disease has wildlife officials and deer breeders eyeing each other suspiciously.
http://chronic-wasting-disease.blogspot.com/2015/12/texas-monthly-chronic-wasting-disease.html Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Objects in contact with classical scrapie sheep act as a reservoir for scrapie transmission
http://scrapie-usa.blogspot.com/2015/12/objects-in-contact-with-classical.html
